Jeff Passan’s Early 2022-23 MLB Free Agency Tiers

There is less than a month left in the regular season for baseball, and with October likely to fly by as quickly as it typically does, the beginning of free agency in Major League Baseball is drawing near.

The incoming class of 2022-23 is strong, highlighted by a variety of excellent hitters and seasoned pitchers with MVP potential. There are four different options available if you need a shortstop who can make a difference.

Help is plenty in the bullpen. There are savants at getting on base, starters who can chew up innings, a few catchers, and a Japanese starter whose fastball has touched 102 miles per hour this year.

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It’s possible that this winter won’t match the $3 billion winter of 2021-22, especially considering that historically speaking, the first offseason following a new collective bargaining agreement sees a reduction in expenditure, but there are plenty of familiar names who will likely be on the move. In order to facilitate everyone’s understanding of the next class, ESPN.com tasked five writers with classifying each player into one of three tiers. The following are the consequences of that action or inaction: Four players were ranked in Tier 1, eight were ranked in Tier 2, 12 were ranked in Tier 3, 46 were ranked in Tier 4, and 42 were ranked in Tier 5.

MLB – Tier 1

The walk year to end all walk years, according to Aaron Judge, OF. His 57 home runs put him 20 home runs ahead of the next best player in the major leagues. His 123 runs batted in put him ahead by 13. The possibility of winning the Triple Crown should not be discounted.

At 6-foot-7 and 282 pounds, he has demonstrated adequate centre fielding ability. He has 16 stolen bases to his name. He is everything a team could desire, and if his age of 30 is the only thing holding him back, then it is the least harmful of all the warts.

This coming winter, he will receive more than $300 million. The question now is whether or not the New York Yankees will be the team to award it to him.

This is what the development of pitching has brought about, according to RHSP Jacob deGrom. Someone whose claims are so impressive that they seem almost unbelievable.

A fastball that averages 99 miles per hour and can reach 102. A slider that rockets in at 93 and reaches 96 miles per hour at its peak. Both the curveball and the change are wonderful tools, but they should only be employed occasionally. There is a case to be made that this particular version of deGrom, who is now 34 years old, could be considered among the all-time greats.

When it comes to throwing pitches, he is head and shoulders above everyone else. Even while there are still questions about deGrom’s ability to maintain this level of performance over the long term, it is almost certain that he will surpass Max Scherzer’s record annual pay of $43.3 million if he remains healthy through the end of the season.

Nolan Arenado, 3B: Arenado stated earlier this year that he did not intend to exercise his right to opt out of the remaining five years and $144 million of his deal. Arenado’s great year, combined with the leverage, necessitates at least a renegotiation with St.

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Louis in order to prevent him from hitting the open market. Seven-win seasons do not come around very frequently, of however, since there were only 43 such WAR totals in the preceding decade. Because if he did, the 31-year-old would stand to make a lot more than the five years and $144 million that he is currently guaranteed.

Imagine shortstop Trea Turner playing in a universe where pitchers are only allowed to make two pickoff throws every at-bat. With a sprint pace of more than 30 feet per second, he is still the third-fastest player in Major League Baseball at his age, and the possibility of him stealing more than 50 bases is extremely real.

And yet, if we only consider Turner’s speed, we don’t get the full picture of his all-around game. He has incredible control of the bat, surprising power, and plays one of the most desirable spots in the lineup. He is the shining star of yet another group of highly talented free agent shortstops.

MLB – Tier 2

Carlos Correa, SS: Correa, like everyone else, too has an option. Either he stays in Minnesota and makes $35.1 million next year (and has the ability to do the same thing at $35.1 million for 2024) or he hits free agency a year after the market doesn’t give him what he believed it would give him.

Correa, who will join the following season at the age of 28, still has youth on his side, and his 2022 slash line (.280/.358/.457) is in the proximity of what it was last year (.280/.357/.463)

However, his defence isn’t what it used to be, and the likelihood of him signing a long-term deal paying more than $35 million per year has decreased as a result of this year’s performance. One of the most intriguing uncertainties this winter is concerning his eventual situation, both monetarily and physically.

Justin Verlander, RHSP: After undergoing Tommy John surgery, the patient has pitched 152 innings with a 1.84 earned run average. And it’s not a number without significance either.

Verlander is still striking out more than one hitter per inning, has a career-low walk rate of 1.54 per nine innings pitched, and has cut his home run rate in half from what it was in 2019.

There is little question that Verlander would decline a player option for $25 million; the question that remains is how many years and how much money teams will commit to a player who will soon turn 40.

Xander Bogaerts, the second baseman, advises not to question the bat. Bogaerts not only has the highest hitting average in the American League, but he also leads the league in slugging percentage.

The score was 521 in the second half. There may not be a better bet for teams that are looking for a batter who focuses solely on hitting. Where Bogaerts winds up playing will be determined by how teams think he’ll age.

He will be 30 years old on Opening Day, but given how well he has performed at shortstop so far this year, it is not yet time to consider moving him to another position.

Dansby Swanson, safety: It is safe to say at this point that Swanson is a good offensive player. OAA claims he has been the greatest shortstop in baseball, while UZR deems him average; yet, scouts view Swanson as the player who makes all the plays he should, which is a very high compliment.

On Opening Day, Swanson will be 29 years old, and his salary won’t break the bank. On the other hand, he is going to make a substantial dint in it.

Carlos Rodón, left-handed starting pitcher: When Rodón decides to opt out of his $22.5 million player option, he will enter the free agent market for the second year in a row, but this time he will have tremendous momentum toward a deal worth nine figures.

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The previous season saw glimpses of how amazing his work could be. And the same thing is happening this year: his fastball is blazing at a career-best 95.6 miles per hour, and his 1622.3 innings have gone a long way toward assuaging concerns about his arm.

Rodón will be 30 years old on Opening Day, making him somewhat older than Patrick Corbin was when he signed a deal worth six years and $140 million. However, based on his performance over the past two seasons, Rodón is a more deserving recipient of this contract.

Edwin Díaz, RHRP: Are we looking at the first reliever to be paid $100 million? Dáz boasts a Fielding Independent Pitching mark that backs up his 1.47 ERA, an incredible 105 strikeouts in 55 innings pitched, a walk rate that is sub three per nine innings pitched, a low home run rate, and a miniscule home run rate.

It is questionable whether it is wise to pay $20 million per year for 60 innings, but for teams that frequently find themselves in high-leverage situations and for whom every win is important, the peace of mind that comes with hearing the horns before the ninth inning might be well worth the investment.

Koudai Senga, RHSP: Senga’s arrival in Major League Baseball is something that many teams have been looking forward to for a long time, and now that he is eligible for free agency, he has the opportunity to become one of the most in-demand players during the offseason if he so chooses.

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His stuff is indisputable; earlier this year, his fastball reached 101.9 miles per hour, and he has a split-fingered fastball that moves as if it were possessed. Senga, who is 6 feet 1 inch tall and weighs 200 pounds, isn’t exactly intimidating to look at, but his statistics from this season surely qualify as such: 124 innings pitched, 89 hits allowed, 40 walks, 137 strikeouts, seven home runs allowed, and an earned run average of 2.03.

Chris Bassitt, RHSP: Although he will be 34 on Opening Day, there is no doubt about Bassitt’s credibility despite his advanced age. Already, he has thrown a total of 1611 34 innings in his career.

He does not walk a single batter, and he gets nearly one batter out of every nine. In addition, he has taken to New York like a rat takes to pizza. There are going to be a lot of teams that don’t want to pay upwards of $40 million per year for deGrom and Verlander, or go five years or longer with Rodon, and Bassitt will be in demand for those teams.

MLB – Tier 3

Brandon Nimmo, centre forward: I believe that he should be in Tier 2 right now. Nimmo will soon turn 30 years old and is a decent centre fielder with good bat control, some pop in his swing, the ability to draw walks, and good walk rate.

Even if it is not the Mets, another team will fall in love with him and sign him to a deal that is comparable to the one that the Mets offered Starling Marte over the winter, which included four years and $78 million, and possibly even more.

Old Reliable, First Base: José Abreu is simply a very strong bat, and although the likelihood of the soon-to-be 36-year-old leaving Chicago appears remote, he will find a rich market if he so desires to leave the Cubs.

Since the 16th of May, he has a batting line of.345/.418/.500, which has helped him achieve a wRC+ that ranks seventh in baseball and a wOBA that ranks sixth.

The C: Willson Contreras The 30-year-old Contreras, who is widely considered to be the finest hitting catcher in the major leagues, did not find any suitors at the trade deadline who were willing to pay a significant bonus to acquire his services.

It is expected that he will have a more pleasant winter this year. Even if he won’t receive the same deal as J.T. Realmuto, which included five years and $115.5 million, Willson Contreras should still be able to negotiate a good contract.

Clayton Kershaw, Left-Handed Starter: When it comes to free agency, Clayton Kershaw’s situation won’t be as much of a free-for-all as it will be a focused operation.

Some baseball insiders have long anticipated that Clayton Kershaw would pitch for a team in Texas at some point in the future. Kershaw’s close friend Chris Young is now the general manager of the Texas Rangers, and the team’s ownership is eager to spend after spending more than $550 million on free agents and trades over the past winter.

But there’s also the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have been Kershaw’s team for the past 16 years after they drafted him out of a suburb of Dallas. It’s impossible to imagine the Dodgers not wanting Kershaw, especially now that he’s got a 2.44 earned run average (ERA), despite the fact that he’s been on the injured list multiple times.

Jameson Taillon, RHSP: Receiving a second Tommy John operation once you’ve already had one doesn’t carry the same level of social shame as it used to. If there is anything to be held against Taillon, and if there is, it is the fact that in his two seasons with the Yankees, he has been blatantly mediocre — a 100 ERA+ last year, and 99 this year.

This is why he can be considered a tier heavy here. He has a fair strikeout rate and superb control, but at the age of 31 in November, he is what he is: a man who pitches in the back of the rotation. He is good for five to six innings in a start.

Tyler Anderson, left-handed starting pitcher, is the latest product of the Dodgers’ pitching machine. Prior to this season, Anderson essentially filled in for Taillon. Now he has a record of 15-3 with an earned run average of 2.62, a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4-1, and he should come close to, if not exceed, his career high of 176 innings pitched.

Anderson will turn 33 in December, but as a left-handed pitcher with a command-and-control approach and an exceptional changeup, he possesses the attributes that often allow a player to age well.

Nathan Eovaldi, RHSP: Eovaldi’s penchant for letting the long ball has always been the thing that has prevented him from moving up to the next tier. This is the main reason why.

Even yet, a true five-pitch starter who maintains a speed of 96 miles per hour and punches out five times as many hitters as he walks will be quite popular, despite the fact that he will be 33 years old on Opening Day and will have two scars from Tommy John surgery on his arm.

Wainwright doesn’t exactly live with his fastball, but the artistry it takes to live at 89 mph from the right side in 2022 is noteworthy. Adam Wainwright, RHSP: Wainwright doesn’t exactly live with his fastball.

Even at the age of 41, he still throws around a quarter of his pitches as cutters, and damned if they don’t still function. He throws almost the same number of curveballs.

It’s possible that Wainwright will retire. In the event that this is not the case, he will return to St. Louis, where he has forged a career worthy of the Hall of Very Good since 2005.

First half, Josh Bell at first base With a.311/.390/.504 line, Bell is unequivocally a man who belongs in Tier 2 of the player pool. Since the All-Star break, Bell’s batting line is.206/.321/.327, and he has only four home runs in 46 games since the break.

This is the same ailment that plagued Bell in the second half of the 2019 season, when it turned from a first-half MVP candidate to a second-half disappointment. There is a lot to admire about him, including his age (30) and the fact that he is a switch-hitter. However, in terms of free agency, such dismal finishing kicks will cool what appeared to be a hot market.

In the first half of the season, Andrew Benintendi, an outfielder, established himself as a high-on-base, reliable-glove corner outfielder. This is relevant to our discussion of mediocre finishes. Before fracturing his right hamate bone this month, he was doing just OK after being traded to the Yankees.

He had an OK batting average, a little above-average on-base percentage, and almost no power. However, he recently suffered the injury. Benintendi has more to offer, and he should do well this offseason thanks to the fact that at least one team will wager that it can coax it out of him.

Mitch Haniger, OF: Haniger is the person in this group who has the greatest possibility of agreeing to take the qualifying offer if it is presented to them. In the first three quarters of the season, he has an on-base percentage that is lower than.300 and has not exhibited the same pop that he did last year when he hit 39 home runs.

But because the Mariners will carry a payroll of only $72 million in 2019 and Luis Castillo will be the only player eligible for a significant arbitration raise, Seattle may be willing to shell out approximately $19 million for Haniger in the hopes of coaxing him into playing a full and healthy season.

Note that Tim Anderson was previously at the top of this category; however, the White Sox are anticipated to pick up his one-year club option for $12.5 million. In the event that it is exercised, Chicago’s option for the 2024 season is for one year at $14 million with a buyout of $1 million.

MLB – Tier 4

It is reasonable to anticipate that all of the players in this class will be offered major league contracts this winter. There is a possibility that some will perform even better than players in the tier above them.

The ones that are written up are considered to be the most interesting, either because of the talent they possess or the uncertainty around where they will place.

The Outfielder Michael Brantley, OF

Matt Carpenter, DH

Carlos Carrasco, RHSP

Aroldis Chapman, left-handed relief pitcher: He’s not the Chapman he used to be, but he still consistently hits 100 miles per hour from the left side, and a lot of teams are willing to take a chance on that.

Mike Clevinger, RHSP: His fastball velocity has dropped by two miles per hour, and he has fewer strikeouts per nine innings than he did previously. Whoever signs him is merely gambling that the Clevinger they remember from the past will show up, because the Clevinger of today is nothing to write home about.

The Observer’s Michael Conforto, OF: Conforto was sidelined for the entirety of the 2022 season after undergoing shoulder surgery.

Due to the fact that his 2021 season wasn’t particularly excellent either, his greatest performance going into his age-30 season is likely to be significantly lower than what he’d hoped for following his outstanding 2020 campaign.

Johnny Cueto, Right-Handed Starting Pitcher: Out of the 52 pitchers who have thrown at least 1392/3 innings, only Marco Gonzales has a worse strikeout rate than Cueto’s 5.67 per nine innings. However, when you can receive more than 6.4 innings a start at a 3.09 ERA for a fee that is not prohibitively expensive, you will gladly take it.

Zach Davies, RHSP

Utah native Brandon Drury

Zach Eflin, RHSP

Adam Frazier, UT

Joey Gallo, Outfielder: The Joey Gallo that the Yankees believed they had acquired in a trade never materialized, and things have been very much the same in Los Angeles. At this time, he is a flyer for the next year.

Kyle Gibson, RHSP

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The only difference is that he isn’t as healthy as Tyler Anderson, says the LHSP Andrew Heaney. Heaney has an incredible strikeout percentage of 13.26 batters per nine innings, and he walks very few of his opponents.

Because of his mix of fastballs and sliders, he has the potential to be an excellent starter, as seen by his 2.84 earned run average across 57 innings pitched in 12 games, but he also has the ability to be some kind of reliever.

Kenley Jansen, RHRP

Corey Kluber, reigning high school pitcher

The RHRP’s Seth Lugo

Jordan Lyles, RHSP

At the beginning of the season, Sean Manaea, the LHSP, appeared to be a guy who was on the cusp of being a Tier 2 player. At the age of 31, Manaea will still attract a great deal of curiosity. However, the decline in effectiveness of his changeup is very concerning.

Trey Mancini, 1B/OF: The epitome of a man who is unapologetically himself. Solid bat, OK-at-best glove, outstanding makeup. Someone you would like to have in your locker room and on your team’s roster.

J.D. Martinez, designated hitter: Martinez’s power has waned in the second half, and his.307 slugging percentage ranks 142nd out of 152 qualified batters. Martinez bats in the designated hitter position. At the age of 35, he is likely to receive a contract for only one year.

Rafael Montero, right-handed relief pitcher: The soon-to-be 32-year-old depends heavily on his fastball arsenal and is a possibility to close for teams looking for lower-cost options. Last season, Montero was horrible — and extremely hittable. Montero was awful.

Matt Moore, LHRP: The team believed he should have been in Tier 5 all along. Moore, however, pitched 63 innings with a 2.14 earned run average while striking out 10.0 batters per nine innings, which led to the decision of the executive staff to promote him. This performance practically begs for a multiyear contract.

Omar Narvaez, C

Adam Ottavino, RHRP

Joc Pederson, OF

If Taillon is in Tier 3, then Perez has every right to be there as well, says Martin Perez of the LHSP. His 2.77 earned run average ranks 11th in the major leagues, his 172 innings pitched tie for 12th, and his 8.16 strikeouts per nine innings are a career high for him. Still young at 31, he won’t be without opportunities to court.

Tommy Pham, who is an OF

UT graduate Jurickson Profar

José Quintana, Left-Handed Starting Pitcher: Quintana is the second-least likely starter to allow home runs, and he would be even better if his changeup wasn’t so easy to hit.

Framber Valdez is the least likely starter to allow home runs. Quintana is an exception to the rule because he still has room for improvement despite the fact that he will be 34 years old on Opening Day.

David Robertson, right-handed relief pitcher: Robertson is throwing harder than he ever has before. He has replaced his fastball with a cutter and relies on his curveball and slider roughly half of the time. It’s a mouthwatering combination, and every club requires a reliever like him in their arsenal.

Taylor Rogers, LHRP

Jean Segura, 2B

L.H.R.P. Will Smith

Ross Stripling, RHP: Starter, reliever — it doesn’t matter with Stripling. He throws a fastball, a changeup, a slider, and a curveball, all of which are effective pitches in their own right. In November, he will turn 33 years old, but that shouldn’t prevent him from landing a multiyear contract.

Noah Syndergaard, RHSP

Justin Turner, 3B

Christian Vazquez, C

The right-handed relief pitcher Michael Wacha, who is 31 years old, has a career earned run average of 2.69. Wacha has a great chance to succeed in a market that has a shortage of starting pitchers, despite the fact that the numbers that are anticipated aren’t quite as enticing.

Taijuan Walker, an RHSP, is yet another player who should be placed in Tier 3. The 30-year-old has performed regularly at a level that is significantly above than normal. If you remove the eight-run disaster he suffered against Atlanta in the first inning of the month of August, his season ERA drops to 2.96.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cm3Nh4gbY20&ab_channel=MLB

Options:

The player option for Andrew Chafin, LHRP, is for one year and $6.5 million.

Sonny Gray, RHSP has been offered a club option for one year at a salary of $12 million.

Nick Martinez, right-handed pitcher, has a player option for one year at $6.5 million, with a buyout of $1.5 million. (Martinez has the same one-year option for both the 2024 and 2025 seasons should the clause be exercised.)

Charlie Morton, RHSP was given a club option worth $20 million for one year.

Player option for one year at $16 million for first baseman Anthony Rizzo.

Player option for two years and $55 million for Chris Sale, left-handed starting pitcher

RHP Luis Severino has a club option for one more year at a salary of $15 million, with a buyout of $2.75 million.

MLB – Tier 5

This is not even close to being the worst of the bunch; these are merely the players that our analysts felt were least deserving of being called out. This winter, one-year contracts are likely to be offered to a variety of players, including some veterans who are at the end of their careers, some who are coming back from injuries, and others who are household names.

The following are ones that I will be keeping a careful eye on: 1B Brandon Belt, RHRP Chad Green, LHRP Brad Hand, 3B Evan Longoria, UT Jace Peterson, RHRP Robert Suarez, 2B Kolten Wong.

And the remaining items are presented in alphabetical order.

Jesus Aguilar, Charlie Blackmon, Nelson Cruz, and UT Aledmys Diaz, OF Adam Duvall, 1B Yuli Gurriel, UT Senior Backstop Josh Harrison José Iglesias, CF Wil Myers, OF David Peralta, OF A.J. Pollock, C Kevin Kiermaier, OF Andrew McCutchen, 1B/OF Martin Maldonado, OF David Peralta, OF A.J. Pollock, OF C This is Gary Sanchez, 1B Miguel Sanó, 1B Carlos Santana.

The following pitchers are on the roster: LHSP Matt Boyd, LHRP Zack Britton, RHSP Dylan Bundy, RHRP Carlos Estevez, RHSP Zack Greinke, RHRP Luke Jackson, RHRP Craig Kimbrel, RHRP Corey Knebel, RHP Michael Lorenzen, LHSP Wade Miley, RHRP Chris Martin, RHRP Wily Peralta, RHRP David Phelps, RHSP Michael Pine

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